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Anatomy of a Ruse

October 18, 2016, 2:44 pm
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To explain a little bit more about how this bogus tip came to be:

It began with an anonymous post to this blog, which mentioned the existence of a Facebook account that might be Maura Murray. They asked how to contact me. I replied they should send an email or simply post a reply on the blog and I wouldn't "approve" it so it wouldn't be public right away.

They posted a reply. I looked at the Facebook profile and dismissed it as a hoax.

Shortly there after I got this email.

Again I ignored it.

Then I received this email from a source of mine, who sometimes goes by the name Marc Rivet. Marc has spoken to me in the past and believes Maura to be living in Keene, New Hampshire, and working at a gas station there.

Marc then called me and explained it was his friend - a female "investigator with inside knowledge of the case" - who saw "Rachel O'Leary" post to a UMass page, mentioning memories of Melville Hall, where Maura lived. Curious, this friend of Marc's visited the profile and saw how much of it lined up with Maura and noticed the resemblance the girl has to the Murrays.

So, after all that I felt it merited a post on this blog, in the chance that it was real so that the people who found it wouldn't post details on the Internet and blow her cover.

I told Marc he should also contact the Cold Case Unit.

Marc called me this morning to tell me he learned last night that it was his friend who created the fake profile account. According to Marc, they spoke to police and admitted their role in it. According to Marc, he spoke to police, too.

Honestly, I don't know what to believe about it all. Or how much of what I've been told is true.

For those complaining that all this wasn't verified before posting, please remember that the whole purpose of this blog is to be transparent and to share info as it comes in. That means documents, interviews, and tips like these. We only outed the troll so quickly because it was posted here.
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Another Cold Case: The Abduction of Amy Mihaljevic

October 21, 2016, 5:49 am
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My Current Thoughts On the Mystery

August 26, 2016, 7:47 am
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This blog has been quiet for a while but that doesn't mean I've stopped working on this case. I've interviewed a couple people this week, off the record, and it's caused me to take another look at some of the strange circumstances surrounding Maura's disappearance.

I become more and more convinced that Maura's destination that night was the UMass Outing Club cabin, in Bethlehem. I firmly believe she was traveling in tandem with another vehicle. That leaves two possibilities in my opinion: 1. This other driver took her to the cabin and then Maura went on to a new life. 2. This other driver disposed of the body after killing her or after she died unexpectedly from complications after the accident.

I lean toward #1. But just a little.

But lately I'm hung up on the pieces of this case that still lack satisfactory answers:

- Bill Rausch mentioned to me once that he knew Maura was shopping for a used car that weekend because he had a contact at a used car dealership near UMass that got him a good deal, before. I'd like to know who that contact was.

- At the time Maura's car crashed in Haverhill, Bill was on the phone with Bob McDonald, a professor from West Point. I'd like to know what that conversation was all about.

- What in the world does Sara Alfieri know? According to the Murray family spokesperson, she told Fred Murray a story about Maura that she won't tell anyone else. And in the days after Maura disappeared, Bill was repeatedly calling Kate Markopoulos until he phoned Sara Alfieri. Then the calls to Kate stop.

- Did Hoss Baghdadi tell police about the Outing Club (which he was active in) and the cabin in Bethlehem?



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Simple, Glaring Detail

September 1, 2016, 7:07 am
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Often, we get hung up on all the weird, possibly meaningless clues (the rag in the tailpipe, etc.) of this case, and we don't see the forest for the trees. But there's one simple thing that's always bothered me and I think it's another detail that points to the tandem driver who has still not come forward:

Does anyone really believe Maura left that day without telling a single other soul where she was going?

I know the quick, easy social-justice-warrior response to this is, "she was a grown woman, why would she have to tell anyone where she was going?"

But, seriously consider it for a second. Do you really think Maura left that day without telling any of her friends that she was planning a trip?

I put this question to women who come to my readings and signings and I have yet to find one who took a trip without telling a single soul, especially one into another state that would take a couple days. And before you step up and say, well I did - I go off on my own all the time - think about it again. Were you going away for days? Did you really not text anyone just to let them know not to call the cops when you didn't show up in a day or two?

What is more likely? That Maura didn't tell a single other person what she was planning to do? Or that she did, and it's that person or persons who were with her that night?


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Recent Sightings Focus on New Hampshire and Canada

September 7, 2016, 7:12 am
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I was contacted by a couple people this week who wonder if they've seen Maura Murray.


The first is from a woman who found this photograph posted under escort services on the New Hampshire craigslist page. The resemblance is striking, but of course the age is way off unless this was taken years ago. Note, too, that this photo that was used on craigslist actually comes from an adult-content website and is almost certainly not the photo of the person who posted it.


The second sighting, which occurred in Canada, is more compelling, in my opinion. Here's the story I was sent. Photo is above.

"The main town on Manatoulin Island is Little Current, population of around three thousand.  There are only a couple of restuarants in the village, one grocery store, so it's quite a cozy place.  In either 2012 or 2013 a group of our family (not including my wife and I, sadly) were vacationing on the island, and one evening decided to patronize a place in town called Garry's Family Restaurant.  They were chatting with their waitress, and in course of small talk this young woman told them that she was actually American as well.  She said she'd come up to the island to attend a band camp, and decided to just stay there and live.  It struck them as odd at the time (and the reason they relayed the story to me this year) because of the whole "band camp" notion.  Its very unique, at least.  If she was associated with a school music program that suggests she would have to have dropped out of her old life, whatever her academic pursuits, to take up menial work in remote Canada. But to be fair this not all that outlandish; it is a very "granola" area, so if you like the great outdoors and nature and living fairly (but not entirely) off the grid, it's a nice place to land.

So this summer I'm listening to podcasts discussion of Murray case, and the idea that Maura could be living beneath the radar in Canada.  Naturally this made me think of the band camp girl. This whole idea poses a huge problem, however, since if it was actually Maura why on earth  would she ever admit to being an American to other Americans?  That would be a very good way to you blow your own cover. Regardless, I decided to Google this place, see if I could find any staff photos or employee references or anything that might allude to this young woman's identity (assuming she is still an employee, now 3-4 years later).  I could find no such information, but on a restaurant review site I did find, among photos of food they serve and an empty dining room, the attached "action" shot of a couple eating at the place.  It's from a very unfortunate angle, but that waitress obviously looks a little like Maura.  My sister-in-law says the waitress in the photo looks like it might have been the same they encountered, as far as she can remember, but did not think the photo of Maura looked familiar.  So...??"
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A Fresh Approach

October 29, 2016, 5:52 am
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Over the last few days, I've reviewed every post on this website, and have decided to remove about twenty or so. In the last year, I've come to believe that Maura is alive and is staying away to protect herself and a child - though in a world of Ariel Castro's, I can't say I'm 100% sure. Let's say 90%.

The posts I took down relate to more prurient details of her college life. At the time, I thought it worth sharing because some of the people involved were interviewed as potential suspects. I no longer believe they are suspects, so the info is probably not relevant. I've also taken down some unrelated personal details about her friends and family.

I will continue to update with new info about the investigation, of course. And will still consider possible suspects, treating this mystery as a homicide until we know for sure it is not.

Thank you for continuing to visit this blog.

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Snapshots of the Past

November 2, 2016, 1:30 pm
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These photographs arrived in my inbox this morning. I thought I should share them.





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New Episode of Missing Maura Murray is Up!

November 3, 2016, 10:49 am
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Honoring Donation, With Contribution to House of Ruth

November 6, 2016, 7:55 am
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Back in 2011, when this blog first started, I mentioned making a donation to a charity to honor Maura's life. I have to say, after so many years and adventures, I simply forgot about this. At the time, I was quite confident that Maura was the victim of a homicide. Today, I believe she is most likely alive and in hiding (and may be continuing to hide in order to protect a child) - though I can't say that for 100% certainty.

Tomorrow I will honor this commitment with a one-time donation of $500 to the House of Ruth, an organization that protects and hides women and children who have been abused.

You can learn more about the House of Ruth and donate as well by following this link.

Best,
James Renner

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Maura Disappeared Very Early in Semester

November 7, 2016, 7:34 am
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This is one of those details that kind of fell through the cracks.

Spring Semester at UMass Amherst began late, in 2004. Classes didn't start until January 28th.

Friday, Feb 6 was a snow day. That means Maura may have attended only 7 days of class. Also worth noting is that Feb 10, the day after she disappeared, was the last day to drop without any record.

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Was Maura Waiting for Student Loans?

November 8, 2016, 7:40 am
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When I was an undergrad at Kent State, I lived off student loans for a couple semesters (and I'm still paying down those loans, actually!) I was able to get loans at a state school that covered my rent off-campus, meals, and still left me with about $5,000 in the bank.

Yesterday, we talked about how Maura was in school only for about two weeks before she disappeared.

The same source who sent me this info also noticed how financial aide overages are posted into a student's account (or the account of a parent, sometimes) at about the same time.

Credit Balances and Refunds
Any remaining credit balance must be refunded to you within a certain amount of time, depending on when the credit balance was created.
  • On or before the first day of classes: No later than 14 calendar days after the first day of classes
  • After the first day of classes: No later than 14 calendar days after the credit balance was created
Refunds from your student account may be delivered by:
  • Cash
  • Check
  • Electronic funds transfer (EFT) to your bank account
  • Prepaid debit or ATM card
You can use your refund to pay for other college costs, such as textbooks, supplies, transportation to and from school, rent (if you live off-campus), computer equipment and software, dependent care, and other miscellaneous expenses.

So...

If Maura ran away, now we're looking at a good nest egg. And maybe you can add $4,000 to that, since we've never really had a good accounting of the cash Fred hastily brought to campus with him the weekend before she disappeared.

It is at least possible that Maura had access to around $10,000 the day she vanished.
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UMass Had Direct Ties To Sherbrooke

November 9, 2016, 7:09 am
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Back in 2013, I traveled to Canada in search of Maura Murray, along with Lance & Tim from the Missing Maura Murray podcast. There have been rumors for years that Maura was living in the Sherbrooke area of Quebec. You can read more about that, here.

Our intrepid new helper just found this link between UMass and Sherbrooke. At the time Maura disappeared, UMass had an exchange program with Université de Sherbrooke. They wonder if Maura may have met an exchange student at UMass in the fall of 2003 and formed a lasting bond that helped her escape.

Regardless, it's an interesting direct link, so I thought I'd share.

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75% Chance of a Conviction

November 10, 2016, 7:45 am
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When Fred Murray sued the state of New Hampshire to get access to records related to the disappearance of his daughter, it led to court testimony and affidavits from investigators. In defending his office's reluctance to release any info, Assistant AG Jeffrey Strelzin explained that there was a 75% chance that they will prosecute someone based on what they'd found so far.

A lot has been made of this, with people pointing to this as proof that the prosecutors have a suspect for Maura's murder but not enough evidence to convict. But I do not believe this is what he meant. Here's a snippet taken during his cross examination by Fred's lawyer.

Question: Based on your involvement with this investigation and your knowledge of the file, do you have an opinion as to whether or not it is more likely than not that this investigation may lead to criminal charges?

Answer: I do.

Q. What is your opinion?

A. I would have to say it's more likely.

Q. That it will lead to criminal charges?

A. Yes.

Later, Strelzin goes on to say:

I could give a percentage of what I think that likelihood is, but I acknowledge that there's also a likelihood that this could simply be a missing person's case that doesn't have criminal overtones.

In other testimony, it is revealed that the investigation kicked up info on criminal activity that was possibly tangential to Maura's disappearance - an arson, etc.

So what does he mean by the 75% conviction? I believe he's talking about things other than murder. That 75% chance of a conviction could refer to things like identity theft, money laundering, fraud, assault, etc. But none of it is able to be pursued until Maura either steps forward or her body is found.

But don't assume the 75% chance refers to murder.

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The Phone Problem

November 12, 2016, 6:04 am
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I want to believe Maura is alive. I want to believe she pulled it off, found somewhere safe, a better life. I will never believe she went up there without telling someone - and if that's true, there must be a good reason that person did not share that info. And I believe Maura was not traveling alone. However...

There is one clue that, on the surface, really suggests she never made it off the mountain - her cell phone.

It wasn't in the car. It went with her (unless we are to believe it was already thrown away). But it never rang again. Bill was trying to call her that night. And everyone was trying to call her the next day. But we know it didn't ring because of the phone records. No calls are getting through. Which means either it was turned off, or it was never again in range of a cell tower - that it never left the mountain, where there is no service.

In fact, for me, this would be case closed - evidence for sure that she ran into the woods (regardless of no footprints, the scent dog leading to the middle of the road) and died there, if not for one frustrating detail: we know Maura turned her phone off earlier that day and we don't know why. Bill was trying to reach her in UMass and after a while those calls don't connect. We know the phone was off as she drove toward the White Mountains. She turned it on once, to check voicemail, and then off again. It was likely off at the time of the accident.

The question is, why did Maura turn off her cell phone? Was it to conserve battery? Or was it so Bill couldn't follow her, couldn't call her?

Since it was off, did she just keep it in her purse, instead of, say, the cup holder or the passenger seat? So when she left, it came with her?

Again, we come to the fork in the road: either she ran away and the plan was already in motion, or she's dead in the woods. If she ran away, though, all the drama that happened in the days leading up to her disappearance (the email from Bill on the packed boxes, the party, the father visit, the money, the lying friends, searching for a condo with 2 bedrooms, etc.) make a certain sense. If she's dead in the woods, it's all just noise and she never told a soul. That's still really hard for me to buy.

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Did Kate disappear?

November 16, 2016, 9:42 am
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Just a quick post to clarify some points that were addressed on the latest podcast. Thier latest guest was a member of the UMass track team, someone who Kate Markopoulos mentored for a bit. A number of her teammates - those without direct ties to Kate - have said that in the days following Maura's disappearance, Kate was absent from practices (though present for a meet). This source now refutes that, saying she was sitting with Kate in the coach's office when Kate was asked about the disappearance on Wednesday of that week. My initial hunch based on interviews with her teammates is that the day she is recalling was actually the Wednesday following, 9 days after the event.

She does provide some important perspective on working security on campus, though. I can't link directly though, since so much of what is discussed relates to police conspiracies.
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What's Going On With the Blog?

November 17, 2016, 8:22 am
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As some have noticed, there were some major and minor changes to the blog in the last few weeks. I have reverted some posts to drafts (meaning they can no longer be viewed). There are two reasons for this: I'm trying to make it easier for Maura to come out of hiding (assuming she really did take off). Early on, I felt it important to share some of the more salacious details of her antics at West Point and UMass, because a couple of the people involved were treated as potential suspects and the case might be a homicide, still. Also, I'm just tired of the anger and negativity that surrounds this case. Obviously I believe the Murrays and Maura's friends from UMass have info that has never been shared, but calling them out on it in weekly posts (and in the comments from readers) isn't making any difference and only adds to the bad blood, there. They've made their decisions - for whatever reason - and they don't owe us anything.

On that note, if there are any particularly egregious posts you think should be reverted to draft, email me a link at jameswrenner@gmail.com

What should remain, in the end, is a website that shares all the primary documents and important clues we've uncovered since beginning in 2011.

I am relentlessly trying to reign in the comments, too. Though sometimes I fall short there.

This is the result of much soul-searching in 2016, instigated by the book's release, my sobriety, my family, my career, and even this damned election. I think there's a better way to do what we're doing.

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Maura Murray on the Principled Uncertainty Podcast

November 22, 2016, 1:50 pm
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I'm the featured guest on this week's Principled Uncertainty Podcast, with T. Blake Braddy. We discuss everything you want to know about the Maura Murray mystery but were too afraid to ask.

Check it out here.


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No, I Do Not Think Maura Is a Sociopath.

November 28, 2016, 12:56 pm
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The latest Missing Maura Murray podcast is out, today. It's a kind of Best Of episode, catching listeners up on all that has happened so far. They revisit episode 6, which was recorded over a year ago. That was the episode where I called Maura a sociopath (based on actions like credit card fraud, identity theft, affairs, etc.) and said she was "at her best when she was with Billy Rausch."

Boy do I wish I could take that back.

I have since learned that Bill Rausch lost his job in D.C. after coworkers claimed he assaulted a woman in the office, pushing her down onto a table in a drunken state when they were alone. That's one of several alarming stories I've heard about Bill.

To be clear, I no longer believe Maura was a sociopath. I believe she was a survivor. I believe she was leaving that night to get away from Bill and other sources of stress in her life.

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Did Maura Take Off With More Money Than We Thought?

December 3, 2016, 9:23 am
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Here's a comment that came in today from a reader who works with financial aide:

I'm a university academic advisor with expertise in financial aid, so I wanted to offer some insight on this.

At a school like UMass, most students receive the following types of financial aid:
-- scholarships
-- Pell Grant
-- Direct Loans
-- PLUS Loan

Direct Loans are fairly small ($3,750 per semester for juniors/seniors), but the PLUS Loan exists to supplement whatever is not covered by the other forms of financial aid. The PLUS Loan can also provide a substantial refund (often around $4,000+) to be used for books, supplies, and other expenses.

The PLUS Loan is always in the parent's name, and the PLUS Loan refund always goes to the parent unless the parent authorizes the school's financial aid office to issue the refund directly to the student. Some parents use private loans (such as Sallie Mae) instead of the PLUS Loan, but usually the PLUS Loan has a lower interest rate.

HERE'S THE IMPORTANT THING: Maura went missing around the exact time she would have gotten her spring semester refund check. If you look at UMass academic calendar for spring 2017, for example, you'll see that classes start on January 23, and the last day to drop or add classes is February 6. Financial aid disburses after the last day to drop or add classes, and students receive refunds approximately one week after the last day to drop or add classes -- putting it squarely on February 13.

If Maura was indeed planning to disappear, she may have been waiting to receive her financial aid refund check. She could have picked it up, cashed it, and left town.

Universities cannot release any information related to student financial records because of FERPA. They can't even release information to parents unless the student signs a consent form, but they would of course release information to law enforcement if warranted.
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This Blog is Locked as an Archive

December 30, 2016, 6:41 am
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As of today, I am locking this blog as is and disabling further comments.

Going forward, this blog will serve as an archive of clues in the case and a record of the span of time I spent looking for Maura Murray. I began the search in 2010, when I believed Maura may have been the victim of a homicide or kidnapping. Over the years, I have become convinced that she had a plan to leave and has remained hidden in order to protect a child. As such, I am no longer actively searching for Maura Murray - in fact, I hope she remains hidden.

Of course, I cannot be 100% sure. Not in a world of Ariel Castros. So the blog remains for other people to parse through the evidence. It will remain as an archive until Maura is found safe or until there is a major break in the case.

I have disabled comments because I am focusing my time on other projects and can't responsibly keep up with deleting the insults and threats that come through.

For those new to the mystery, please spend some time clicking through the documents section for reliable information.

My book on the case is available here in print, ebook, and as an audiobook.

There is an excellent podcast about the case here.

Thank you, constant readers - especially those silent types who came back day after day just out of curiosity. Thanks for your help. In our best moments, we showed what good social media can do for unresolved cases.

Best,
James Renner
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